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The ‘Road Ahead’…

February 11, 2009

road_aheadOne of Bill Gate’s better quotes, made I believe in the Road Ahead, is that “people tend to overestimate what will happen in the next two years but underestimate what will happen in the next ten”

Having spent much of my career working in technology I have witnessed first hand this happening time and time again.

  • A 3 year stint in the advertising industry at the beginning of the 90s saw the arrival of affordable desktop computing and the subsequent desktop publishing revolution.
  • The 7 years spent working in the broadcast and telecoms industry during the digital revolution saw the arrival and growth of digital and interactive television, digital radio, the web and broadband.
  • A subsequent 3 years spent working at the heart of the mobile telephony industry at the turn of the century saw the development and introduction of 3G technologies.
  • And the last 6 years spent working with, and for, web applications developers and service providers has seen a revolution in how the web is used – from a read only to a read/write medium.

I have been fortunate to have been there when some of this technological history was first made and have avidly charted its progress from that point, sometimes playing a part in the early hype that is often seen with such developments but then seeing things mature and become very much part of our everyday lives.

Like the Bill Gates quote, I have also seen the renowned Gartner Hype Cycle play out repeatedly during this time.

I think this experience, coupled with a long held interest in history, has made me more attune to the prospects and fate of emerging technologies and ideas.

This blog therefore is a place where I will be noting my thoughts on the future and seeking discussion and collaboration with others on its various topics.

Given my background, there may be more of a bias towards communications technologies but I am also keen to explore other key areas of development that will shape the way we will live in 2020 and beyond.

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